Inferring Economic Impacts from a Program's Physical Outcomes: An Application to Forest Protection in Thailand.

Economists typically estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) when evaluating government programs. The economic interpretation of the ATT can be ambiguous when program outcomes are measured in purely physical terms, as they often are in evaluations of environmental programs (e.g., avoided deforestation). This paper presents an approach for inferring economic impacts from physical outcomes when the ATT is estimated using propensity-score matching. For the case of forest protection, we show that a protection program's ex post economic impact, as perceived by the government agency responsible for protection decisions, can be proxied by a weighted ATT, with the weights derived from the propensity of being treated (i.e., protected). We apply this new metric to mangrove protection in Thailand during 1987-2000. We find that the government's protection program avoided the loss of 12.8% of the economic value associated with the protected mangrove area. This estimate is about a quarter smaller than the conventional ATT for avoided deforestation, 17.3 percentage points. The difference between the two measures indicates that the program tended to be less effective at reducing deforestation in locations where the government perceived the net benefits of protection as being greater, which is the opposite of the relationship that would characterize a maximally effective program.

Using metapopulation theory for practical conservation of mangrove endemic birds.

As a landscape becomes increasingly fragmented through habitat loss, the individual patches become smaller and more isolated and thus less likely to sustain a local population. Metapopulation theory is appropriate for analyzing fragmented landscapes because it combines empirical landscape features with species-specific information to produce direct information on population extinction risks. This approach contrasts with descriptions of habitat fragments, which provide only indirect information on risk. Combining a spatially explicit metapopulation model with empirical data on endemic species' ranges and maps of habitat cover, we calculated the metapopulation capacity-a measure of a landscape's ability to sustain a metapopulation. Mangroves provide an ideal model landscape because they are of conservation concern and their patch boundaries are easily delineated. For 2000-20015, we calculated global metapopulation capacity for 99 metapopulations of 32 different bird species endemic to mangroves. Northern Australia and Southeast Asia had the highest richness of mangrove endemic birds. The Caribbean, Pacific coast of Central America, Madagascar, Borneo, and isolated patches in Southeast Asia in Myanmar and Malaysia had the highest metapopulation losses. Regions with the highest loss of habitat area were not necessarily those with the highest loss of metapopulation capacity. Often, it was not a matter of how much, but how the habitat was lost. Our method can be used by managers to evaluate and prioritize a landscape for metapopulation persistence.

Uso de la Teoría de Metapoblaciones para la Conservación Práctica de las Aves Endémicas de Manglares Resumen A medida que un paisaje se fragmenta cada vez más debido a la pérdida de hábitat, los parches se vuelven más pequeños y aislados y, por lo tanto, menos propensos a sostener a una población local. La teoría de metapoblaciones es adecuada para analizar paisajes fragmentados porque combina características empíricas del paisaje con información de cada especie para producir información directa sobre los riesgos de extinción de la población. Este enfoque contrasta con las descripciones de los fragmentos de hábitat que solo proporcionan información directa sobre el riesgo. Mediante la combinación de un modelo metapoblacional espacialmente explícito con datos empíricos de los rangos de distribución de especies endémicas y mapas de la cobertura del hábitat, calculamos la capacidad de la metapoblación - una medida de la capacidad del paisaje para sostener una metapoblación. Los manglares proporcionan un paisaje modelo ideal porque son de interés para la conservación y los límites de los parches son delineados fácilmente. Calculamos la capacidad de la metapoblación global para el período 2000-2015 de 99 metapoblaciones de 32 especies de aves endémicas de manglares. El norte de Australia y el sudeste de Asia tuvieron la mayor riqueza de aves endémicas de manglares. El Caribe, la costa del Pacífico de Centroamérica, Madagascar, Borneo y parches aislados en el sudeste de Asia en Myanmar y Malasia tuvieron las mayores pérdidas de metapoblaciones. Las regiones con mayor pérdida hábitat fueron necesariamente aquellas con mayor pérdida de capacidad de la metapoblación. A menudo no era una cuestión de cuánto, sino cómo se perdió el hábitat. Nuestro método se puede utilizar por manejadores para evaluar y priorizar un paisaje para la persistencia de la metapoblación.

Synthesis, characterization and nucleic acid binding studies of mononuclear copper(II) complexes derived from azo containing O, O donor ligands.

Azo linked salicyldehyde and a new 2-hydroxy acetophenone based ligands (HL1 and HL2) with their copper(II) complexes [Cu(L1)2] (1) and [Cu(L2)2] (2) were synthesized and characterized by spectroscopic methods such as 1H, 13C NMR, UV-Vis spectroscopy and elemental analyses. Calculation based on Density Functional Theory (DFT), have been performed to obtain optimized structures. Binding studies of these copper (II) complexes with calf thymus DNA (ct-DNA) and torula yeast RNA (t-RNA) were analyzed by absorption spectra, emission spectra and Viscosity studies and Molecular Docking techniques. The absorption spectral study indicated that the copper(II) complexes of 1 and 2 had intrinsic binding constants with DNA or RNA in the range of 7.6 ± 0.2 × 103 M-1 or 6.5 ± 0.3 × 103M-1 and 5.7 ± 0.4 × 104 M-1 or 1.8 ± 0.5 × 103 M-1 respectively. The synthesized compounds and nucleic acids were simulated by molecular docking to explore more details mode of interaction of the complexes and their orientations in the active site of the receptor.

Is the Geographic Range of Mangrove Forests in the Conterminous United States Really Expanding?

Changes in the distribution and abundance of mangrove species within and outside of their historic geographic range can have profound consequences in the provision of ecosystem goods and services they provide. Mangroves in the conterminous United States (CONUS) are believed to be expanding poleward (north) due to decreases in the frequency and severity of extreme cold events, while sea level rise is a factor often implicated in the landward expansion of mangroves locally. We used ~35 years of satellite imagery and in situ observations for CONUS and report that: (i) poleward expansion of mangrove forest is inconclusive, and may have stalled for now, and (ii) landward expansion is actively occurring within the historical northernmost limit. We revealed that the northernmost latitudinal limit of mangrove forests along the east and west coasts of Florida, in addition to Louisiana and Texas has not systematically expanded toward the pole. Mangrove area, however, expanded by 4.3% from 1980 to 2015 within the historic northernmost boundary, with the highest percentage of change in Texas and southern Florida. Several confounding factors such as sea level rise, absence or presence of sub-freezing temperatures, land use change, impoundment/dredging, changing hydrology, fire, storm, sedimentation and erosion, and mangrove planting are responsible for the change. Besides, sea level rise, relatively milder winters and the absence of sub-freezing temperatures in recent decades may be enabling the expansion locally. The results highlight the complex set of forcings acting on the northerly extent of mangroves and emphasize the need for long-term monitoring as this system increases in importance as a means to adapt to rising oceans and mitigate the effects of increased atmospheric CO2.

Damage and recovery assessment of the Philippines' mangroves following Super Typhoon Haiyan.

We quantified mangrove disturbance resulting from Super Typhoon Haiyan using a remote sensing approach. Mangrove areas were mapped prior to Haiyan using 30m Landsat imagery and a supervised decision-tree classification. A time sequence of 250m eMODIS data was used to monitor mangrove condition prior to, and following, Haiyan. Based on differences in eMODIS NDVI observations before and after the storm, we classified mangrove into three damage level categories: minimal, moderate, or severe. Mangrove damage in terms of extent and severity was greatest where Haiyan first made landfall on Eastern Samar and Western Samar provinces and lessened westward corresponding with decreasing storm intensity as Haiyan tracked from east to west across the Visayas region of the Philippines. However, within 18months following Haiyan, mangrove areas classified as severely, moderately, and minimally damaged decreased by 90%, 81%, and 57%, respectively, indicating mangroves resilience to powerful typhoons.

Emerging Technologies to Conserve Biodiversity.

Technologies to identify individual animals, follow their movements, identify and locate animal and plant species, and assess the status of their habitats remotely have become better, faster, and cheaper as threats to the survival of species are increasing. New technologies alone do not save species, and new data create new problems. For example, improving technologies alone cannot prevent poaching: solutions require providing appropriate tools to the right people. Habitat loss is another driver: the challenge here is to connect existing sophisticated remote sensing with species occurrence data to predict where species remain. Other challenges include assembling a wider public to crowdsource data, managing the massive quantities of data generated, and developing solutions to rapidly emerging threats.

Distribution and dynamics of mangrove forests of South Asia.

Mangrove forests in South Asia occur along the tidal sea edge of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. These forests provide important ecosystem goods and services to the region's dense coastal populations and support important functions of the biosphere. Mangroves are under threat from both natural and anthropogenic stressors; however the current status and dynamics of the region's mangroves are poorly understood. We mapped the current extent of mangrove forests in South Asia and identified mangrove forest cover change (gain and loss) from 2000 to 2012 using Landsat satellite data. We also conducted three case studies in Indus Delta (Pakistan), Goa (India), and Sundarbans (Bangladesh and India) to identify rates, patterns, and causes of change in greater spatial and thematic details compared to regional assessment of mangrove forests. Our findings revealed that the areal extent of mangrove forests in South Asia is approximately 1,187,476 ha representing ∼7% of the global total. Our results showed that from 2000 to 2012, 92,135 ha of mangroves were deforested and 80,461 ha were reforested with a net loss of 11,673 ha. In all three case studies, mangrove areas have remained the same or increased slightly, however, the turnover was greater than the net change. Both, natural and anthropogenic factors are responsible for the change and turnover. The major causes of forest cover change are similar throughout the region; however, specific factors may be dominant in specific areas. Major causes of deforestation in South Asia include (i) conversion to other land use (e.g. conversion to agriculture, shrimp farms, development, and human settlement), (ii) over-harvesting (e.g. grazing, browsing and lopping, and fishing), (iii) pollution, (iv) decline in freshwater availability, (v) floodings, (vi) reduction of silt deposition, (vii) coastal erosion, and (viii) disturbances from tropical cyclones and tsunamis. Our analysis in the region's diverse socio-economic and environmental conditions highlights complex patterns of mangrove distribution and change. Results from this study provide important insight to the conservation and management of the important and threatened South Asian mangrove ecosystem.

Mapping the Philippines' mangrove forests using Landsat imagery.

Current, accurate, and reliable information on the areal extent and spatial distribution of mangrove forests in the Philippines is limited. Previous estimates of mangrove extent do not illustrate the spatial distribution for the entire country. This study, part of a global assessment of mangrove dynamics, mapped the spatial distribution and areal extent of the Philippines' mangroves circa 2000. We used publicly available Landsat data acquired primarily from the Global Land Survey to map the total extent and spatial distribution. ISODATA clustering, an unsupervised classification technique, was applied to 61 Landsat images. Statistical analysis indicates the total area of mangrove forest cover was approximately 256,185 hectares circa 2000 with overall classification accuracy of 96.6% and a kappa coefficient of 0.926. These results differ substantially from most recent estimates of mangrove area in the Philippines. The results of this study may assist the decision making processes for rehabilitation and conservation efforts that are currently needed to protect and restore the Philippines' degraded mangrove forests.

Protection of mammal diversity in Central America.

Central America is exceptionally rich in biodiversity, but varies widely in the attention its countries devote to conservation. Protected areas, widely considered the cornerstone of conservation, were not always created with the intent of conserving that biodiversity. We assessed how well the protected-area system of Central America includes the region's mammal diversity. This first required a refinement of existing range maps to reduce their extensive errors of commission (i.e., predicted presences in places where species do not occur). For this refinement, we used the ecological limits of each species to identify and remove unsuitable areas from the range. We then compared these maps with the locations of protected areas to measure the habitat protected for each of the region's 250 endemic mammals. The species most vulnerable to extinction-those with small ranges-were largely outside protected areas. Nevertheless, the most strictly protected areas tended toward areas with many small-ranged species. To improve the protection coverage of mammal diversity in the region, we identified a set of priority sites that would best complement the existing protected areas. Protecting these new sites would require a relatively small increase in the total area protected, but could greatly enhance mammal conservation.

Comparison of Remote Sensing Image Processing Techniques to Identify Tornado Damage Areas from Landsat TM Data.

Remote sensing techniques have been shown effective for large-scale damagesurveys after a hazardous event in both near real-time or post-event analyses. The paperaims to compare accuracy of common imaging processing techniques to detect tornadodamage tracks from Landsat TM data. We employed the direct change detection approachusing two sets of images acquired before and after the tornado event to produce a principalcomponent composite images and a set of image difference bands. Techniques in thecomparison include supervised classification, unsupervised classification, and object-oriented classification approach with a nearest neighbor classifier. Accuracy assessment isbased on Kappa coefficient calculated from error matrices which cross tabulate correctlyidentified cells on the TM image and commission and omission errors in the result. Overall,the Object-oriented Approach exhibits the highest degree of accuracy in tornado damagedetection. PCA and Image Differencing methods show comparable outcomes. Whileselected PCs can improve detection accuracy 5 to 10%, the Object-oriented Approachperforms significantly better with 15-20% higher accuracy than the other two techniques.

Mangrove Forest Distributions and Dynamics in Madagascar (1975-2005).

Mangrove forests of Madagascar are declining, albeit at a much slower rate than the global average. The forests are declining due to conversion to other land uses and forest degradation. However, accurate and reliable information on their present distribution and their rates, causes, and consequences of change have not been available. Earlier studies used remotely sensed data to map and, in some cases, to monitor mangrove forests at a local scale. Nonetheless, a comprehensive national assessment and synthesis was lacking. We interpreted time-series satellite data of 1975, 1990, 2000, and 2005 using a hybrid supervised and unsupervised classification approach. Landsat data were geometrically corrected to an accuracy of ± one-half pixel, an accuracy necessary for change analysis. We used a postclassification change detection approach. Our results showed that Madagascar lost 7% of mangrove forests from 1975 to 2005, to a present extent of ~2,797 km². Deforestation rates and causes varied both spatially and temporally. The forests increased by 5.6% (212 km²) from 1975 to 1990, decreased by 14.3% (455 km²) from 1990 to 2000, and decreased by 2.6% (73 km²) from 2000 to 2005. Similarly, major changes occurred in Bombekota Bay, Mahajamba Bay, the coast of Ambanja, the Tsiribihina River, and Cap St Vincent. The main factors responsible for mangrove deforestation include conversion to agriculture (35%), logging (16%), conversion to aquaculture (3%), and urban development (1%).